The temporary trade agreement between the United States and China emerged as a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, offering a stark lesson for the Global South. Under President Donald Trump’s administration, U.S. foreign policy has shifted toward a transactional approach, prioritizing economic deals over ideological values like democracy or human rights. This deal, which addresses trade imbalances and secures economic concessions, underscores a reality for developing nations: in today’s world, economic leverage, not moral posturing, secures influence and a seat at the global table. For the Global South—comprising nations in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean—this agreement highlights the need for strategic pragmatism to navigate a world dominated by great power rivalries.
The US-China trade deal comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions, including a trade war initiated by Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, to which China retaliated with a 34% import tax on U.S. products. Despite this, both nations have shown a willingness to collaborate when mutual economic interests align, as seen in their history of contesting influence while cooperating on critical issues. For instance, China’s burgeoning commerce in Latin America and the Caribbean, a region of strategic importance to the U.S., has grown significantly, with Beijing’s investments in infrastructure and trade fostering alliances. Meanwhile, the U.S. has countered with its own economic initiatives, never allowing ideological differences to fully obstruct geopolitical calculus. This duality—competition tempered by cooperation—offers a blueprint for the Global South.
The Global South has often been caught in the crosshairs of great power competition. Historically, nations in these regions have leaned on ideological alignments, such as anti-Western rhetoric or democratic credentials, to gain favor with global powers. However, the US-China deal reveals the limitations of such strategies. Washington’s focus under Trump is clear: business deals trump values. Autocrats and democracies alike are judged by their economic utility, not their governance models. For example, the U.S. has pursued agreements with countries regardless of their political systems, provided they offer strategic or economic benefits. This transactionalism is a wake-up call for Global South nations to prioritize economic strength and strategic assets over ideological posturing.
China’s own trajectory reinforces this lesson. Despite its efforts to position itself as a Global South leader, China operates with a mercantilist, zero-sum economic model. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has built infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, but experiences in countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan reveal the risks of debt dependency and unequal partnerships. Sri Lanka’s 99-year lease of Hambantota Port to China and Pakistan’s struggles with BRI debt highlight how China’s “win-win” rhetoric often benefits Beijing disproportionately. Yet, China’s ability to leverage its $400 billion deal with Iran for oil and influence in the Middle East demonstrates the power of economic clout in securing geopolitical gains.
India, a key player in the Global South, offers a case study in adapting to this reality. New Delhi has pursued a pragmatic foreign policy, balancing relations with the U.S., China, and other powers. India’s rejection of China’s attempts to rename places in Arunachal Pradesh in 2025, coupled with its participation in trade agreements like the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) deal with Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, reflects a strategic focus on economic and territorial sovereignty. India’s target of $2 trillion in exports by 2030 underscores its ambition to use trade as a tool for global influence, learning from the US-China model of narrative control and dual engagement.
The Global South faces unique challenges in this landscape. The region has been battered by disruptions like the global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, and supply chain issues, yet neither the U.S. nor China has consistently provided solutions. During the pandemic, China’s economy contracted by 6.8% in Q1 2020, with unemployment estimates reaching 20.5%, exposing its vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the U.S. under Trump faced criticism for its handling of the crisis, undermining its global leadership. These gaps highlight an opportunity for Global South nations to assert agency by building economic resilience and regional alliances.
Social media sentiment on platforms like X in May 2025 reflects the Global South’s growing awareness of this dynamic. Posts emphasized that the US-China deal prioritizes business over values, urging developing nations to focus on economic leverage to gain influence. Others noted India’s strategic moves, such as rejecting Chinese provocations while pursuing trade deals, as a model for navigating great power rivalries. These discussions underscore a broader recognition that the Global South must adapt to a world where deals, not ideals, shape global outcomes.
To thrive, Global South nations must invest in strategic sectors like technology and infrastructure. China’s dominance in power inverters, critical for renewable energy systems, illustrates how control over key industries can extend geopolitical influence. Similarly, India’s push for self-reliance in defense and technology, coupled with its QUAD partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, shows how diversified alliances can counter dependency on any single power. Regional cooperation, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area or ASEAN’s economic integration, can further amplify the Global South’s collective bargaining power.
The US-China deal also exposes the risks of over-reliance on great powers. China’s export of surveillance technologies to Global South nations has raised concerns about authoritarian practices spreading alongside economic aid. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s transactional approach under Trump, evident in his equivocal stance on India-Pakistan tensions and his focus on deals over diplomacy, suggests that Global South nations cannot expect consistent support. Instead, they must develop their own narratives and leverage their resources—be it Africa’s critical minerals, Latin America’s agricultural exports, or India’s technological talent—to secure favorable terms in global negotiations.
Looking ahead, the Global South must embrace a non-West, positive agenda, as seen in initiatives like India’s Global Development Compact, which aims to amplify developing nations’ voices. By focusing on economic resilience, technological innovation, and regional solidarity, these nations can reduce vulnerabilities to great power whims. The US-China trade deal, while a product of two superpowers’ self-interest, serves as a clarion call for the Global South to prioritize pragmatism, build economic muscle, and claim its rightful place in a re-globalizing world.
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