A Diplomatic and Economic Crossroads
On May 14, 2025, India’s trade relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan emerged as a focal point of tension, strained by their vocal support for Pakistan during a volatile conflict with India. The diplomatic fallout, triggered by India’s Operation Sindoor—a series of precision strikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)—has sparked widespread calls in India for boycotts of Turkish and Azerbaijani goods and tourism. The operation, launched on May 7 in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, has not only escalated India-Pakistan tensions but also drawn international scrutiny, with Turkey and Azerbaijan condemning India’s actions and aligning with Islamabad. This blog explores the evolving dynamics of India’s trade and diplomatic ties with these two nations, the impact of boycott movements, and the broader implications for regional geopolitics and India’s national security priorities.
The Catalyst: Operation Sindoor and the Pahalgam Attack
The roots of the current crisis lie in the devastating terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025. Militants from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and The Resistance Front (TRF) targeted Baisaran Valley, killing 26 civilians, primarily Hindu tourists. India accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of orchestrating the attack, prompting a swift and decisive response. Operation Sindoor saw India deploy 24 missile strikes on nine terrorist facilities across Pakistan and PoK, targeting groups like LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen. The operation, named after the vermilion mark symbolizing the blood of victims, was hailed by Indian officials as a “measured and responsible” strike against terrorism but drew sharp criticism from Turkey and Azerbaijan, who condemned it as a violation of sovereignty.
Turkey’s role in the conflict was particularly contentious, as Pakistan deployed Turkish-made Asisguard Songar drones in failed attempts to target Indian military installations. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, issued statements expressing solidarity with Pakistan and concern over civilian casualties, aligning itself with Ankara’s stance. These actions have fueled outrage in India, where public sentiment views Turkey and Azerbaijan’s support for Pakistan as tacit endorsement of terrorism. The resulting boycott movement, encompassing travel, trade, and tourism, reflects India’s growing assertiveness in using economic leverage to signal displeasure with nations perceived as undermining its security.
The Trade Landscape: India’s Economic Ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan
India’s trade with Turkey and Azerbaijan, while not massive in global terms, is significant enough to feel the ripple effects of the current tensions. In the period from April to February 2024-25, India’s exports to Turkey totaled $5.2 billion, down from $6.65 billion in 2023-24, representing about 1.5% of India’s total exports of $437 billion. Imports from Turkey stood at $2.84 billion, compared to $3.78 billion the previous year, accounting for roughly 0.5% of India’s total imports of $720 billion. India maintains a trade surplus with Turkey, with key exports including mineral fuels and oils ($960 million in 2023-24), electrical machinery, auto parts, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, rubber, cotton, man-made fibers, and iron and steel. Imports from Turkey include marbles, fresh apples (worth about $10 million), gold, vegetables, lime, cement, mineral oil ($1.81 billion in 2023-24), chemicals, pearls, and steel.
Trade with Azerbaijan is far smaller but strategically notable, particularly in the energy sector. India’s exports to Azerbaijan during April-February 2024-25 were $86.07 million, slightly down from $89.67 million in 2023-24, comprising just 0.02% of total exports. Imports from Azerbaijan were a mere $1.93 million, up from $0.74 million, representing 0.0002% of India’s inbound shipments. India’s exports to Azerbaijan include tobacco ($28.67 million in 2023-24), tea, coffee, cereals, chemicals, plastics, rubber, paper, and ceramics, while imports consist of animal fodder, organic chemicals, essential oils, perfumery, and leather ($1.52 million). In 2023, India was the third-largest destination for Azerbaijan’s crude oil, underscoring the energy dimension of their ties.
Formal trade agreements bolster these relationships. India and Turkey signed a bilateral trade pact in 1973, followed by the establishment of the India-Turkey Joint Commission on Economic and Technical Cooperation in 1983. While no such formal agreement exists with Azerbaijan, trade has grown steadily, from $50 million in 2005 to $1.435 billion in 2023, driven by Azerbaijan’s role as an oil supplier. However, the current diplomatic rift threatens to disrupt these economic ties, with Indian traders and businesses taking proactive steps to reduce engagement with both nations.
The Boycott Movement: From Social Media to Economic Action
The public and private response in India to Turkey and Azerbaijan’s stance has been swift and resolute. Calls for boycotts began circulating on social media platforms shortly after the conflict escalated, with hashtags and campaigns urging Indians to shun Turkish and Azerbaijani goods and travel. Prominent figures, including businessman Harsh Goenka, highlighted the $4 billion Indian tourists contributed to these countries’ economies in 2024, urging travelers to redirect their spending to “India-aligned” destinations like Armenia and Greece. Posts on X captured sentiments like, “Indians gave Rs 4,000+ crore to Turkey & Azerbaijan last year through tourism… Today, both stand with Pakistan after Pahalgam attack. Plenty of beautiful places in India & the world. Please skip these 2 places.”
The travel industry has been at the forefront of the boycott. Major platforms like EaseMyTrip, Cox & Kings, and Travomint have suspended all travel packages to Turkey and Azerbaijan, citing national sentiment and safety concerns. EaseMyTrip’s Nishant Pitti reported 22% cancellations for Turkey and over 30% for Azerbaijan within days, while industry estimates suggest over 50% of bookings to both destinations were canceled in the week following May 7. The Travel Agents Association of India (TAAI) advised agencies to halt promotions, and tour operators have suspended packages entirely. Some companies, like Go Homestays, have ended partnerships with Turkish Airlines, while others, such as Goa Villas, have refused accommodation services to Turkish citizens in solidarity with India’s stance.
Indian traders have also joined the movement. In Pune’s APMC market, apple traders like Suyog Zende announced a boycott of Turkish apples, opting for domestic alternatives from Himachal Pradesh. Udaipur’s marble traders, representing Asia’s largest marble export hub, unanimously agreed to halt imports from Turkey, which supplies 70% of India’s marble. These actions, while symbolic, carry economic weight, signaling to Turkey and Azerbaijan that their support for Pakistan comes at a cost. Social media posts on X, such as one noting that “Azerbaijan is doing 100X more trade with India than Pakistan & Turkey is doing 10X more,” underscore the frustration that economic ties have not translated into diplomatic neutrality.
Tourism: A Significant Casualty
Tourism, a key pillar of India’s economic engagement with Turkey and Azerbaijan, is poised to take a significant hit. In 2024, Turkey welcomed 3.3 lakh Indian tourists, a 20.7% increase from 2023, with spending estimated at over $3,000 crore. Azerbaijan saw 2.43 lakh Indian visitors, a 108% surge from 1.17 lakh in 2023, making India its fourth-largest tourism source after Russia, Turkey, and Iran. These numbers reflect the growing appeal of both countries for Indian travelers, drawn to Turkey’s historical sites and Azerbaijan’s scenic landscapes and visa-friendly policies. However, the boycott movement threatens to upend this growth.
Travel agencies report a sharp decline in bookings, with some operators redirecting clients to destinations like Bali, Malaysia, Armenia, and Greece. Greece, in particular, has emerged as a favored alternative, with its historical monuments and scenic islands drawing Indian tourists seeking to align their travel with geopolitical sentiments. Armenia, a long-standing ally of India with strengthened defense ties since 2020, is also seeing increased interest. The economic impact on Turkey and Azerbaijan could be severe, as Indian tourists have been a fast-growing market, contributing significantly to hotels, restaurants, and local businesses. The loss of this revenue, especially during peak travel seasons, may mirror the $1.8-$2 billion hit faced by the Maldives in 2024 after a similar boycott sparked by diplomatic tensions.
People-to-People Ties: A Fragile Connection
Beyond trade and tourism, India shares modest but meaningful people-to-people ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Approximately 3,000 Indian nationals reside in Turkey, including 200 students, while Azerbaijan hosts over 1,500 Indians. These communities, comprising professionals, students, and expatriates, have fostered cultural and educational exchanges. However, the current tensions risk straining these ties, as public sentiment in India grows increasingly hostile toward nations perceived as supporting Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and terrorism.
The use of Turkish drones by Pakistan has been a particular flashpoint. Posts on X and statements from Indian officials highlight the Songar drones’ role in Pakistan’s failed attempts to breach Indian airspace, amplifying perceptions of Turkey as an active enabler of aggression. Azerbaijan’s condemnation of Operation Sindoor, while less militarily significant, has reinforced its alignment with Pakistan, further alienating Indian public opinion. These developments underscore the challenge of maintaining people-to-people connections when diplomatic and military priorities clash.
Geopolitical Implications: A Shifting Regional Landscape
The strain on India’s ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan reflects broader geopolitical fault lines in South Asia and beyond. Turkey’s historical support for Pakistan, particularly on the Kashmir issue, has long been a point of contention with India. Its supply of drones and public criticism of Operation Sindoor mark a continuation of this stance, aligning with its broader ambition to assert influence in the Muslim world. Azerbaijan’s position, driven by its close ties with Turkey and Pakistan, is complicated by its reliance on India as a major oil buyer. In 2023, India imported $1.227 billion worth of crude oil from Azerbaijan, making it a critical market. The boycott movement thus poses a dilemma for Baku, which risks economic losses for a relatively small trade relationship with Pakistan ($40 million in 2023-24 compared to $1.43 billion with India).
For India, the boycott is both a tactical response and a strategic signal. By targeting Turkey and Azerbaijan’s tourism and trade sectors, India aims to impose economic costs for their alignment with Pakistan, reinforcing its no-tolerance policy on terrorism. The shift toward Armenia and Greece as travel destinations also aligns with India’s efforts to strengthen ties with nations that share its security concerns or counterbalance Turkey’s regional influence. Armenia, for instance, has deepened defense cooperation with India, while Greece’s growing economic ties with New Delhi offer a mutually beneficial alternative.
However, the boycott carries risks. India’s trade surplus with both nations means that reduced exports could impact its own industries, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and textiles. The marble industry, heavily reliant on Turkish imports, may face supply chain disruptions, potentially increasing costs for domestic consumers. Moreover, alienating Azerbaijan could complicate India’s energy security, given its role as a crude oil supplier. Balancing these economic considerations with the need to project strength on national security will be a key challenge for Indian policymakers.
Domestic Sentiment and Political Support
In India, the boycott movement has garnered widespread support across political and social spectra. Shiv Sena UBT MP Priyanka Chaturvedi publicly appealed for a boycott, citing Turkey and Azerbaijan’s support for Pakistan post-Pahalgam. Industry leaders like Subhash Goyal of the Federation of Tourism and Hospitality and Ravi Gosain of the Indian Association of Tour Operators have endorsed redirecting tourism to India-friendly destinations. The marble traders’ decision in Udaipur and apple traders’ boycott in Pune reflect a grassroots commitment to aligning economic choices with national interests.
Social media has amplified these sentiments, with posts on X framing the boycott as a moral imperative. One user noted, “Turkey is doing 10X more trade with India than Pakistan… Still they side with Pak only coz of 1 thing – RELIGION,” highlighting the perception that ideological affinities, rather than economic logic, drive Turkey and Azerbaijan’s positions. The government, while not officially endorsing the boycott, has signaled its approval through measures like banning imports, mail, and ship docking from Pakistan, as announced on May 4. These actions, coupled with Operation Sindoor, underscore India’s resolve to prioritize security over economic ties with nations perceived as hostile.
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
As of May 14, 2025, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, effective from May 10, has temporarily de-escalated military tensions, but the diplomatic rift with Turkey and Azerbaijan shows no signs of abating. The boycott movement, while effective in mobilizing public sentiment, will test India’s ability to sustain economic pressure without undermining its own interests. The tourism sector in Turkey and Azerbaijan, already reeling from cancellations, faces a prolonged downturn if Indian travelers continue to shun these destinations. For India, the challenge lies in diversifying trade and tourism partnerships while maintaining its hardline stance on terrorism.
The shift toward Armenia and Greece offers opportunities to strengthen ties with allies and boost their economies. Greece, with its robust tourism infrastructure, stands to gain from an influx of Indian visitors, while Armenia’s defense and cultural ties with India could deepen bilateral cooperation. Domestically, promoting tourism to regions like Jammu and Kashmir, despite its recent trauma, could help restore confidence and economic activity, aligning with the government’s narrative of resilience.
Ultimately, the strain on India’s trade ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan underscores the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and national security. The boycott movement, born of anger over the Pahalgam attack and fueled by Turkey’s drone supplies and Azerbaijan’s solidarity with Pakistan, reflects India’s growing willingness to wield economic tools in defense of its interests. As the world watches, the choices made by New Delhi, Ankara, and Baku in the coming weeks will shape not only their bilateral ties but also the broader contours of regional stability in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
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