Twin UN warnings: 1.5C limit now out of reach, and El Nino could be strongest in four decades

Two United Nations agencies have issued stark climate warnings within days of each other, saying the world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree Celsius warming limit and that an unusually powerful El Nino is building in the Pacific.

Emissions gap

The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on 21 October, says the chance of holding warming below 1.5C without overshooting it is gone. The goal now, it says, is to keep any overshoot as small and short as possible and bring temperatures back down by 2100.

To do that, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by about 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040 from 2025 levels, according to the report as summarised by Down To Earth and DevelopmentAid. Even then, warming would likely peak around 1.7C to 1.8C by mid-century, and large amounts of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the air.

Current policies point to warming of up to 2.8C this century, the report says. Emissions in 2025 were broadly flat at about 58 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, and G20 economies account for roughly three-quarters of the total. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said overshoot "is not surrender".

A powerful El Nino

Separately, the World Meteorological Organization warned that the current El Nino could be unprecedented in strength. Tropical Pacific sea temperatures could reach as much as 3.8C above average between November and January, beyond anything in its records of the past four decades, according to Euronews and The Weather Channel. The WMO expects the event to peak around the end of 2026, with effects lasting well into next year.

UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher called the event a "wrecking ball" of heat, drought and floods, and said he had released more than 50 million US dollars to help 11 highly exposed countries prepare.

Why it matters for India

India is among the countries most exposed to extreme heat, and El Nino years have historically been linked to weaker monsoons and higher temperatures in South Asia. The emissions report also adds pressure on major emitters, including India, ahead of the next round of UN climate talks, where countries will be pressed to strengthen their plans.