Israel's final polls show neither bloc near a majority ahead of Tuesday's election

Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, with the last opinion surveys allowed before the vote suggesting that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition will win the 61 seats needed to govern in the 120-member Knesset.

What the polls show

Three television polls published on Friday all gave Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats, The Times of Israel reported. The opposition parties led by Jewish-majority lists were projected at between 52 and 56 seats, with Arab-led parties taking 14 to 16 seats.

Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party was the largest single party in all three polls, at 22 or 23 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud at 19 to 21. Naftali Bennett's party was projected at 14 or 15 seats.

In Channel 12's survey, Eisenkot led Netanyahu as preferred prime minister by 44 per cent to 38 per cent, Turkiye Today reported. Israeli law bars publishing new polls from Saturday until exit polls are released when voting ends at 10 pm on Tuesday, which is 1:30 am Wednesday in India.

Coalition arithmetic

Several small parties, including lists led by Ofer Winter and Moti Leitner, fell below the electoral threshold in the polls. Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party crossed it in only one survey, with four seats, and has not committed to either camp.

With neither bloc near a majority, a government may only be possible if parties drop campaign pledges about whom they will sit with. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has said he is open to joining the opposition camp, but several of its parties have ruled out governing with Ra'am. If no coalition is formed, Israel could face another election in early 2027, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker.

It is the first general election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. The cost of living, the military draft law, accountability for the October 7 failures and the war with Iran have dominated the campaign.

Why it matters for India

Israel is a major defence and technology partner for India, and the region's stability affects energy prices and the safety of millions of Indians working in West Asia. A prolonged political deadlock in Israel could add to uncertainty at a time of heightened regional tension.