Israel election: exit polls show no majority for Netanyahu or Eisenkot-led bloc after record turnout

Israel's general election on Tuesday produced no clear winner, according to exit polls released by the country's main television channels after voting closed at 10 pm local time. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc nor the opposition camp led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is projected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

What the exit polls show

Projections by Channel 12 and Channel 13 gave the Eisenkot-led bloc 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 50, with Arab parties together winning 17 to 18 seats. Public broadcaster Kan put the opposition camp at 53 and the Netanyahu camp at 50. Channel 14 offered a markedly different picture, giving the right-wing bloc 60 seats.

Netanyahu's Likud was projected to remain the single largest party with 24 to 25 seats in most polls, ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar! party at 21 to 23. Final pre-election surveys had placed Yashar! ahead of Likud. The two main Arab lists, the Joint List and Ra'am, were projected to do better than pre-election polls had suggested.

Turnout was unusually high. The Central Elections Committee reported 74.3 per cent by 8 pm, compared with 70.63 per cent in the 2022 election, and Israeli media described it as the highest figure at that hour in decades.

A long count ahead

Exit polls are based on interviews with voters as they leave polling stations and can shift once real ballots are counted. Officials said more than 650,000 double-envelope ballots must be counted separately, a process that could run until Friday. Parties hovering near the 3.25 per cent threshold for entering parliament could rise or fall on those votes. Official results are due on November 4.

If the projections hold, the Arab parties could become pivotal in any attempt to form a government, setting the stage for weeks of coalition bargaining. Under Israeli law, the president consults party leaders after official results and tasks the lawmaker seen as most likely to form a coalition.

Why it matters for India

Israel is an important defence and technology partner for India, and New Delhi has been closely watching security in West Asia, where Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have pushed up oil prices in recent weeks. A prolonged period of political uncertainty in Israel could slow decisions on regional diplomacy at a sensitive time.