IMD says Bay of Bengal low may intensify into depression by Nov 15; rain, hail forecast for J&K

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said a fresh weather system is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal this week and could strengthen into a depression, raising concern along a coastline that has already faced two cyclones in the past three weeks.

System in the Bay of Bengal

According to IMD's all-India bulletin issued at 9.03 pm on Wednesday, November 11, a cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea is expected to produce a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 13. It is forecast to move north-westwards, become a well-marked low around November 14 and intensify into a depression around November 15. Forecasters have not said whether it will grow into a cyclone, and not every such system does.

The department has warned fishermen against venturing into the Andaman Sea until November 16 and into the southeast Bay of Bengal from November 13 to 16, with squally winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60-65 kmph expected. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are likely to see widespread rain with isolated heavy spells through the week.

Rain is forecast to pick up over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, turning scattered on November 14 and fairly widespread on November 15. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema may get isolated showers on November 14 and 15, while Kerala could see heavy rain around November 16.

The new system comes after Cyclone Arnab struck the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28 and Cyclone Murasu followed on November 3, damaging lakhs of hectares of crops in Andhra Pradesh and affecting farmland and houses in Odisha.

Western Himalayas and north India

In the north, a western disturbance is bringing rain and snow to the hills. IMD has forecast widespread rain over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh on Thursday, November 12, with isolated heavy rain and hail, and earlier forecasts flagged heavy rain and snowfall in the Kashmir Valley on the same day. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to get scattered to isolated rain over the next few days, and Punjab may see light showers.

Delhi is expected to stay mostly dry, with shallow to moderate fog in the mornings and minimum temperatures of around 14-17 degrees Celsius. Most of central and western India is forecast to remain dry.

What it means

For farmers in the southern states still recovering from recent cyclone losses, and for fishing communities on the east coast, the next few days will be watched closely. IMD has advised people in affected areas to follow local alerts, avoid sheltering under trees during lightning and take precautions for crops and livestock.